U.S. stock markets have exhibited a high degree of volatility in recent weeks. There are lots of factors contributing to the turmoil, which will ebb and flow, probably for the rest of our lives. So let’s just circle back to why we’re here: here...
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Trade War Turmoil Trumps a Good Earnings Season
U.S. stock markets took quite a tumble in the last few business days. For those of you wondering, “Should I buy low?”, the answer to that question is usually “yes, but let’s first wait for the to...
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Market Views
Be Ready for Profit-Taking
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed today on slightly negative breadth on the NYSE. Broad foreign equity ETFs (EFA, EEM, VEU) also had a quiet day. However, small and mid-cap ETFs fell about 1⁄2%.
The Russell...
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The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates this week, with a likely announcement on July 31. The stock market has fully priced in a rate reduction, which means if the Fed fails to lower rates, investors can expect the market to for...
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Last week’s economic reports delivered good news, presuming that you are rooting for a stable or strong U.S. economy. June retail sales rose 0.4% vs. May, when economists expected an 0.2% increase; and retail sales also rose 3.4% vs. a year ago.
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From a stock market point of view, I suggest avoiding homebuilder stocks in the coming years. Companies that build single-family homes will be competing with a glut of existing homes on the market.
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Contrary to yesterday's market reaction, interest rate cuts are actually bad for stocks. For evidence, just look at these three charts.
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The news media continues to whip investors into a frenzy over the direction of interest rates. Depending on where you look, you can find knowledgeable financial pundits making the case for steady, unchanging interest rates or for the Fed to lower the fed rate...
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The unemployment-stock market correlation is a picture-perfect inverse on a chart. Now that unemployment can't sink much lower, where do stocks go?
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Congrats to the Top Picks 2019, Mid-Year
Congratulations to our Top Picks for 2019! We’re halfway through the year, and the markets are doing great—and so are our Top Picks! The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 11.8%; the S&P 500 is up 14.3%, the...
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More on the Baby Boomer Housing Forecast
In the June 18 update of Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor, I wrote about a very serious change in the housing market that could take place over the next decade, as Baby Boomers sell their big homes and to...
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Let me tell you about the greatest options trade I saw in my 10 years on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) - and what I learned from it.
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Last week’s much-awaited pronouncement by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) turned out to be a big “nothing burger.” I did not personally expect a cut in the fed funds rate.
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All across America, but especially in the Northeast and the Midwest, Boomers will be putting their homes up for sale, and often leaving those areas for warmer climates.
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We’re looking at economic data that could push interest rates upward (rising food price inflation and business expansion) and we’re also looking at economic data that could push rates downward (GDP potentially falling due to China tariffs, and slowing employment numbers).
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Market Views
Be Ready for Profit-Taking
I see yields and stocks falling considerably more than this in the months ahead. Likewise, I think gold’s countdown is nearing its end, prior to re-launching in more dramatic fashion its interrupted secular bull market.
But these moves—or at least of...
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Assessing the Retail Stock Landscape
After rising 25.3% from Christmas Eve 2018 through April 30, 2019, the S&P 500 stock index fell 6.6% in May. A pullback was clearly overdue, and there was plenty of fuel to keep investors on the edge of their Many...
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Many of our stocks are still recovering from the steep stock market downturn that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2018. As long as their fundamentals (profits, valuation, etc.) remain strong, I’m going to give those stocks some rope and allow them to recover.
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After rising 25% from its December low to its May high, the S&P 500 index is finally taking a breather. I don’t expect a shocking price drop like we saw in December. Rather, I anticipate the S&P 500 receding to 2,750, which would down...
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Market Views
Watch for Violation of Lows
Technically, not much has changed since last week. Momentum indicators on the major averages remain overbought for the short, intermediate, and the long term. Market sentiment shows high optimism (a contrary indicator), suggesting short-term caution. Today’s decline and were...
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