Mostly Sunny, Chance of Showers
In the last issue, we wrote about the myriad crosscurrents that were still being seen—while the major indexes looked good, the day-to-day rotation was wild among sectors and themes, with news-driven moves the norm for a few weeks. But also...
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The bull market is alive and well, as investors look forward to vaccines that enable economic reopening. So I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks.
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Wild—but Positive—Action
The healthiest market environment is generally one where most participants are rowing in the same direction—the vast majority of stocks and sectors glide higher (with the occasional pullback or shakeout, of course) as investor perception of the future steadily improves. Even if broad...
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The bull market rolls on, with today’s news about Moderna’s vaccine providing a high-profile reason to be optimistic about reopening the economy.
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The news that Pfizer has a promising Covid vaccine, combined with the weekend news that Biden/Harris won the presidential election, triggered a wave of buying (and selling) on Wall Street this morning, rewarding both large caps and small caps while penalizing (at least stocks...
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Believe What You See
There are usually a couple of times each year where the market really messes with people, catching the vast majority of investors off-guard. (Remember the old saw: The market does what it has to do to fool the most investors One...
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With the election tomorrow a nearly universal concern, my optimistic expectation is that it will quickly pass, and investors’ attention will revert to what really matters—growth and valuation.
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The overall investing environment remains positive, though recent weakness in growth stocks in particular means buyers of aggressive stocks should favor low-risk entry points.
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Riding the Bucking Bronco
Investing in general, and growth stock investing in particular, tends to be very streaky—while many would love for a steady, low-stress increase in their portfolios, that’s not how the world usually works. Instead you get periods of time when the gushes...
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Some of the best stock performers throughout history have been what are known as “follow-on” opportunities—companies that thrive as a secondary effect of some major change going on in the world.
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The overall investing environment continues to improve, with our intermediate-term trend-following indicator now back in positive mode and growth stocks in particular seeing strong buying.
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Steady Improvement
By the letter of the law, the big-cap indexes remain in the midst of a correction—the S&P 500 sits about 4% off its high, while the Nasdaq is more than 5% below its early-September peak, and many stocks and sectors are being around...
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Officially, Cabot’s trend-following indicators now tell us that the intermediate-term trend of the market is down—and this means it’s prudent to increase your cash position, while leaning toward caution in new investments.
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Officially, Cabot’s trend-following indicators now tell us that the intermediate-term trend of the market is down—and this means it’s prudent to increase your cash position, while leaning toward caution in new investments.
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Bad News, Good News
Our last issue was titled “Burden of Proof is on the Bulls,” and since then, the buyers have failed to step up to the plate, leading to a worsening of the overall evidence—earlier this week, our Cabot Tides flipped to bearish...
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Technically, the market is now in an intermediate-term downtrend, which tells us that additional defensive measures would be prudent. In the very short term, however, I expect a bounce from today’s high-profile decline, so I’m mainly holding.
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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Burden of Proof is On the Bulls
At heart, we’re students of the market, which means one of the key tools we use is spotting the difference between normal, run-of-the-mill action and abnormal, noteworthy action, the latter of which is what usually causes us make...
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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The bull market remains in full force, even as various signs (sentiment and charts) caution that a correction is increasingly likely.
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