Bad News, Good News
Our last issue was titled “Burden of Proof is on the Bulls,” and since then, the buyers have failed to step up to the plate, leading to a worsening of the overall evidence—earlier this week, our Cabot Tides flipped to bearish...
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Back on August 13, when the broad market was strong and marijuana stocks were even stronger, I took partial profits in our four strongest stocks (which were also our four largest positions) because they looked very extended to the upside.
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Technically, the market is now in an intermediate-term downtrend, which tells us that additional defensive measures would be prudent. In the very short term, however, I expect a bounce from today’s high-profile decline, so I’m mainly holding.
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The trend favoring highly scalable, high growth U.S. technology stocks is unlikely to change in the near future but diversifying into different countries and sectors is a good idea as we move into the fourth quarter.
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There hasn’t been any real news about our stocks in the past week, but I’ve been watching the charts carefully, trying to decide whether it’s time to put some of our 35% cash back into the market, or to take more out, or simply...
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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Burden of Proof is On the Bulls
At heart, we’re students of the market, which means one of the key tools we use is spotting the difference between normal, run-of-the-mill action and abnormal, noteworthy action, the latter of which is what usually causes us make...
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Fundamentally, the only recent news regarding the marijuana industry is that the U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the MORE Act, which would deschedule marijuana and thereby legalize it federally, the week of September 21. Passage is likely. Getting through the Senate not.
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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With the exception of another nice gain by NovoCure (NVCR), this was a quiet week for the Cabot Global Stocks Explorer portfolio as the Nasdaq continues its march, up almost 35% so far in 2020.
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Three weeks ago, when the marijuana sector seemed extremely extended to the upside, we sold 25% of each of the positions in our four U.S. multi-state operators
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Don’t Fight the Fed?
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, called by its colloquial name “the Fed” even on its website, made its informal but landmark policy change official last week. For the foreseeable future, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero, focusing almost on...
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The bull market remains in full force, even as various signs (sentiment and charts) caution that a correction is increasingly likely.
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Has the “Re-Rotation” Begun?
When our last issue went to press, growth stocks were under pressure. It wasn’t an epic disaster, but there had clearly been a change in character, with the initial market leaders (those that burst to new highs in April or May)...
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A Little Cautious
The good news is that our portfolio is well in the black for the year, thanks to strong performances by all four of our U.S. multi-state operators, our REIT (IIPR) and our hydroponics retailer (GRWG). (Readers who held GRWG before second-quarter were...
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With a second stock pullback likely after a two-month rally, today I want to discuss my five commandments for selling short - before you need to use them.
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The market’s strength has been very impressive, and our market-timing indicators continue to tell us that the market will be higher in the months ahead.
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The broad market continues to look very healthy, with good breadth that suggests the ultimate end of this bull run is still months away.
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Growth Stocks Under Pressure
We saw signs growth stocks were ready for a “real” correction in June, but the buyers showed up. And again in July, it appeared the red-hot growth titles were ready to rest—and some of them did—but most enjoyed yet another to...
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One of the market truisms that I learned long ago concerns selling stocks near the end of a strong run-up—and because the odds are growing stronger that we’re nearing such a situation now, I bring it up today.
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