It’s been a tough few months for cannabis investors, but no downtrend lasts forever, and yesterday’s blast-off by Aphria (APHA), which sparked buying across the sector, is a sign that the worst has almost certainly passed.
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Yesterday was the worst day of the year for cannabis stocks, with HEXO (no longer in our portfolio) leading the way down with a plunge of 22.5% after the company announced that revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, ended July, would be $14.5 $16.5...
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The cannabis sector has been trending down since the end of March, giving back its spectacular gains from the start of the year, and until now I’ve remained optimistic about our stocks, partially because of their outstanding fundamental growth metrics but also because two...
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Lots of Crosscurrents!
The good news is that yesterday the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of the SAFE Banking Act (the acronym stands for "Secure and Fair Enforcement"), which would shield banks and other financial institutions from being held liable for serving businesses...
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In the broad market, all is well, as all trend-following indicators are positive, and the number of stocks hitting new lows has been minuscule in recent days.
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One major factor in investing, particularly in small stocks and young sectors where growing pains are still the norm, is sentiment. Good sentiment can take a sector to extreme highs—as it has done for the marijuana sector at every major legalization milepost.
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As summer morphs into fall and Wall Street returns to full operation, I’m seeing some welcome signs of buying in the cannabis sector. So today we’ll join them, by averaging up in two of our holdings.
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Buying Opportunity
It’s been rather frustrating to see cannabis stocks falling day after day, week after week, while the companies’ quarterly reports (with the exception of Canopy Growth) continue to reveal that business is booming. But that’s how the market works.
First, cannabis stocks attracted slew...
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Yesterday’s strong market triggered a technical indicator, a follow-through signal that tells us buyers are lurking. Of course, today’s big decline so far isn’t good to see, but nevertheless, this and other measures (awful sentiment, etc.) tell us there should be support on weakness.
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The good news is that many cannabis companies have been releasing their second quarter reports and the results have been excellent.
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The cannabis sector is still in correction mode ... looking for a bottom somewhere.
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While long-term prospects for the cannabis industry remain excellent, the sector as a whole remains in correction mode today, with the big Canadian stocks under the greatest pressure—and no one knows where the bottom is, though history tells us it will come when last...
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Bad News Bears
The stock market in general is quite healthy, with the major indexes at or near their highs, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators positive.
But the cannabis sector is still weak.
Part of this weakness stems from the fact that cannabis was the sector...
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The broad market is in fine shape, with most major indexes at or near their highs and all Cabot’s market-timing indicators bullish.
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The marijuana sector’s charts have been weak overall since the sector’s March top.
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Cooling Off
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. This picture of the Marijuana Index tells a story that be summed up in fourteen.
From January through March, marijuana stocks were hot.
Since then, they’ve been cooling off.
The reasons for the strength were From...
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Many of our stocks seem stuck in the mud—not bad, but not blasting off like some of the market’s leading stocks. Also, looking at the Marijuana Index, we see that it’s now come back down to where it was in mid-January.
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The market has been up for six straight days, marijuana stocks look good, overall, and while we don’t quite have a buy signal from our intermediate-term trend-following indicator, we are very close. Today we are averaging up in three stocks.
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The broad market has advanced nicely since mid-day Monday when news that the Fed might lower interest rates sparked a wave of buying. Long-term, the future is bright. But short-term, the portfolio is happy holding a cash level of 23%, deferring new buying.
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Cannabis News
Fundamentally, the fastest-growing industry in America continues its rapid evolution. Some analysts now estimate that marijuana will be an $80 billion business in few years, while CBD sales will hit $16 billion by 2025.
It’s hard to know. But one big step comes tomorrow the...
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