The stock market is clearly accelerating the “reopening” trade. Small cap and cyclical stocks as well as commodity prices are surging, interest rates continue to tick up (the 10-year Treasury yield is now 1.38%, up from 0.92% at year-end), and novel financial vehicles SPACs,...
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With the stock market regularly surging to record highs, it may seem like an unusual time to focus on valuation. After all, many stocks are remarkably expensive on traditional measures, and even somewhat lofty on non-traditional measures. But valuation still matters, especially if market...
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Last week, we outlined four ingredients of a market bubble that were usefully outlined in a recently published book1”and briefly described how it clearly appears that our stock market is in a bubble. These ingredients include easy trading of assets, cheap and easy rising...
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Intel’s recently publicized struggles with its own chip production highlight the trajectory of this story. The company has been unable to successfully transition to leading-edge manufacturing technologies, and is seriously considering outsourcing to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor. Intel has long been the industry’s in...
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As value investors in a remarkably robust (exuberant) stock market, full valuation impels us to want to sell a stock. Such is the case with General Motors. On most conventional metrics, the stock is fairly priced. Through the courtesy of several friends, we’ve some...
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There's plenty of data that suggests the calendar matters when it comes to investing. But should seasonal investing be part of your long-term calculus?
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Most stocks on the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor recommended list had strong performance this past week. Part of the strength was perhaps due to money managers’ general optimism that seems to brighten with turn of the calendar. With last year’s bonuses firmly in bag,...
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With the turn of the calendar only a few days ahead, just about every investor is mapping out their market views for the coming year. Some do this formally, like Wall Street brokerage firms who publish their opinions on where the S&P 500 interest...
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The Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor has an investment horizon that is generally one to two years. As long as our companies are making fundamental progress, we’re comfortable with waiting for periods that easily extend past December 31st. However, the market doesn’t necessarily share that perspective. many...
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It’s been said that the four most dangerous words in investing are “this time, it’s different.” The stock market’s behavior is clearly pointing to things being different this time.
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Over the past month or so, it seemed like stocks would continue their frenetic surge. This week, however, the market appears relatively lackluster with a lot less excitement. Some investors may yearn for more fireworks, but as a value investor, I find this to...
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Stocks showing strength and breadth like we haven’t seen in a long time, particularly with the broad market at a record high. Despite flattish returns from the formerly high-flying mega-cap tech stocks, the broad stock market is no longer grinding higher, it is higher,...
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While pulling back a bit from the sharp jump on Monday, November 9th, the market rebounded on additional encouraging Covid vaccine results this week.
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Just like that, the stock market emerged from its dark mood of October 30th to surge 8.6% in six trading days, with reinvigorated optimism following the evaporation of the election cloud and news of a very promising Covid vaccine.
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A rare seasonal market indicator is flashing. The 11 times it's flashed before, stocks have been up an average of 14% in the next six months.
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While the market action has been somewhat exciting this week (though in the wrong direction), it was fairly dull for Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor recommended stocks in terms of news. This news drought will fade as five companies report later this week, with six more following...
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With low interest rates and easy borrowing terms, and some supportive jaw-boning and incremental buying by the Federal Reserve, new corporate debt issuance in the United States is reaching record highs.
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The stock market had a decent week, gaining about 5% since our last letter. While market commentators have ascribed a range of reasons for the strength, including new hope for a federal stimulus package, a growing consensus about the outcome of the presidential and...
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With all of our stocks now having price targets assigned to them, we thought we’d share with you some of our process behind how we set those price targets.
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Through most of the summer, investors had become increasingly confident about the strength and direction of the economic recovery, the likelihood of the arrival of several promising Covid vaccines, another round of federal economic stimulus and other favorable indicators.
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