As we move into the third quarter, analysts at Goldman Sachs write that their baseline forecast is for the S&P 500 to gain 5% in the second half of the year. In their “vaccine upside” scenario, stocks rise by 14% from here; in “virus...
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U.S. and global markets continue to be fueled by substantial amounts of liquidity washing over the world. According to Lipper, the amount in American money market funds has reached $4.6 trillion. This is a record going back to 1992.
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Why are markets continuing to move upward in the midst of economic and political upheaval? The short answer is don’t fight the Fed, which has made it abundantly clear that it will do anything necessary to keep this economy and market moving.
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Despite a Chinese economy that has grown three times faster than America’s every year over the past three decades, it has been a bit of a challenge to consistently make money in Chinese stocks.
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The S&P 500 paused its recovery over the past week, moving sideways over the past five days. Here is my take on the market.
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What we may see developing in markets is a rather broad trading range – say from 21,000 to 25,000 in the Dow. This could be our reality until we work our way through the real but uncertain impact of the shutdown on the economy.
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Most positions are up 5%-6% for the week, with a couple of exceptions.
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In such an environment it’s easy to assume the worst and miss the flipside of the equation – great companies trading at prices that just a month ago we would have considered incredible. Market volatility and uncertainty are creating great opportunities.
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Ironically, China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index hit its highest point this week since February 2018.
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This week is a reminder that markets don’t always go up. The big surprise was that it took so long for global markets to wake up to the threat.
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The markets are demonstrating impressive resiliency in the face of the coronavirus. You can’t fight the market but I remain a bit more guarded since this disruption will have to hit profits down the road for some companies.
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The market seems to be a bit complacent given the risks of the virus spreading rapidly in China and elsewhere but we need to remain a bit cautious. There is some suspicion that China is downplaying the numbers.
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The big news pertaining to global investing is the signing in Washington yesterday of the phase-one “truce” trade deal between America and China.
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For the most part, global stock markets performed strongly in 2019. But if you dig a bit deeper, you will see sizable and interesting gaps between countries.
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We are so accustomed to looking at stocks and markets day by day that we sometimes miss the big trends as well as opportunities.
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The Cabot Global Stocks Explorer portfolio is doing well in 2019 and a number of recommendations have recently surged on the strength of impressive earnings and an improving environment for emerging and international stocks.
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Our emerging markets timer strengthened this week as the EEM climbed over 44 today, just short of its high for the year.
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The Financial Times this week reported that Beijing is preparing plans to remove Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, whose term is not up until 2022, as anti-government protests in the city intensified.
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Today marks the first face-to-face talks between senior officials from America and China since July.
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Our portfolio advanced this week led by India’s ICICI (IBN), which was up 19% on the back of a tax cut and prospects for higher growth.
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