Bad News, Good News
Our last issue was titled “Burden of Proof is on the Bulls,” and since then, the buyers have failed to step up to the plate, leading to a worsening of the overall evidence—earlier this week, our Cabot Tides flipped to bearish...
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With 32 stocks in our portfolio and a market that’s going through all manner of gyrations right now, it’s time to part ways with a few of our underperforming positions.
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It’s been another week of mixed stock performance and assorted headlines that collectively give me the sense that, while a lot of investors may be shifting money around, there’s no real consensus yet on what will work and what won’t in the near-term.
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Back on August 13, when the broad market was strong and marijuana stocks were even stronger, I took partial profits in our four strongest stocks (which were also our four largest positions) because they looked very extended to the upside.
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Through most of the summer, investors had become increasingly confident about the strength and direction of the economic recovery, the likelihood of the arrival of several promising Covid vaccines, another round of federal economic stimulus and other favorable indicators.
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When we got into this stock we fully expected a lot of twists and turns. We didn’t expect the current drama.
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Technically, the market is now in an intermediate-term downtrend, which tells us that additional defensive measures would be prudent. In the very short term, however, I expect a bounce from today’s high-profile decline, so I’m mainly holding.
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The flavor of the market hasn’t changed in the last week, in my view. There is still a sense that many high growth stocks have run too far. I think the lesser-informed general public hears about the recent slide in the mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT,...
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There hasn’t been any real news about our stocks in the past week, but I’ve been watching the charts carefully, trying to decide whether it’s time to put some of our 35% cash back into the market, or to take more out, or simply...
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Election season is now in full swing. In less than seven weeks, or only 49 days, the country will select its next president, representatives from all 435 House congressional districts, 35 senators and 12 state governors.
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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Every so often one of our stocks is the target of a short report that tries to make the case that a company is garbage, a fraud, and/or wildly overvalued.
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Burden of Proof is On the Bulls
At heart, we’re students of the market, which means one of the key tools we use is spotting the difference between normal, run-of-the-mill action and abnormal, noteworthy action, the latter of which is what usually causes us make...
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The market has served up a good deal of volatility lately and for the most part our stocks have handled it well (so far).
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Fundamentally, the only recent news regarding the marijuana industry is that the U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the MORE Act, which would deschedule marijuana and thereby legalize it federally, the week of September 21. Passage is likely. Getting through the Senate not.
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The recent (and ongoing?) tech momentum reversal appears to be due to a variety of concerns ranging from doubt about valuations, worries about the pace of the economy’s recovery, the lack of another stimulus package and slowing growth in the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.
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Overall, our market-timing indicators remain bullish, and thus the prescription for investing success is to maintain a diversified portfolio of healthy stocks.
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The big question on investors’ minds is if this tech stock retreat is a precursor to something larger or a “normal” correction in the context of a bull market.
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We all know this market has been overdue for a pullback, if not a larger correction, especially for many tech stocks.
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Three weeks ago, when the marijuana sector seemed extremely extended to the upside, we sold 25% of each of the positions in our four U.S. multi-state operators
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