Bad News, Good News
Our last issue was titled “Burden of Proof is on the Bulls,” and since then, the buyers have failed to step up to the plate, leading to a worsening of the overall evidence—earlier this week, our Cabot Tides flipped to bearish...
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After pulling back over 8% from the high, the market is having trouble finding any traction. And the selling may not be over.
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Through most of the summer, investors had become increasingly confident about the strength and direction of the economic recovery, the likelihood of the arrival of several promising Covid vaccines, another round of federal economic stimulus and other favorable indicators.
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The raging bull market took a breather. The S&P 500 actually pulled back 7% from the high at the peak of the recent Labor Day selloff. But that seems to be over. The market has since regained some traction and appears to be an...
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Election season is now in full swing. In less than seven weeks, or only 49 days, the country will select its next president, representatives from all 435 House congressional districts, 35 senators and 12 state governors.
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Burden of Proof is On the Bulls
At heart, we’re students of the market, which means one of the key tools we use is spotting the difference between normal, run-of-the-mill action and abnormal, noteworthy action, the latter of which is what usually causes us make...
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The recent (and ongoing?) tech momentum reversal appears to be due to a variety of concerns ranging from doubt about valuations, worries about the pace of the economy’s recovery, the lack of another stimulus package and slowing growth in the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.
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Labor Day marks the start of a new year of sorts and a rebirth of seriousness in the collective psyche. The other side of Labor Day is a new ballgame, when investors shake off the apathy of summer and refocus with intensity.
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Has the “Re-Rotation” Begun?
When our last issue went to press, growth stocks were under pressure. It wasn’t an epic disaster, but there had clearly been a change in character, with the initial market leaders (those that burst to new highs in April or May)...
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These are the dog days of summer. It’s a rare time of year when a certain degree of slackery is not only tolerated, but expected. People tend to focus on enjoying the waning days of summer. More serious issues and considerations get postponed after...
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Starting next Monday, August 31, before the market opens, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will have a new look.
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After a brief decline in early June, the market has resumed the uptrend that began on March 24th. It has been a spectacular 55% rally in less than five months.
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Second quarter earnings season is winding down. It was quite a quarter! We’re impressed that so many companies have aggressively reduced their operating costs in the recently completed quarter.
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Growth Stocks Under Pressure
We saw signs growth stocks were ready for a “real” correction in June, but the buyers showed up. And again in July, it appeared the red-hot growth titles were ready to rest—and some of them did—but most enjoyed yet another to...
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We are mostly through the bulk of earnings season and it has been enlightening, particularly as we learn about the pandemic’s effects on profits. Earnings season should be a period when company results can be clearly measured, especially since we are dealing with numbers.
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The horrible second quarter is behind us and a rapidly recovering economy with a very accommodative Fed lies ahead. There are a lot of reasons for the rally and unless investors get scared straight the rally seems destined to continue.
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Positive, but Less Powerful
One of the big reasons the market has always attracted us is that it’s a contrary beast, requiring investors to think and perceive things differently than in their day-to-day view of the real world. To the average person who turns the...
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So far, earnings season hasn’t had that much of an impact on the overall market. I don’t think investors know quite what to make of this quarter. It’s bad. But everyone knows that going in.
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By far the worst performing sector in recent years has been the energy sector. From its peak in mid-year 2014 when oil prices reached over $100/barrel to its current state of complete disarray, the S&P Energy Sector index has collapsed 63%. For comparison, broad...
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Every week there’s bad new and good news. This week there is bad news about tensions with the Chinese and good news regarding a European Union stimulus and energy demand. Every week there’s bad news and good news about the virus. The spread the...
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