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volatility Archives

What is Volatility?

There’s an invisible force that moves your stock up or down on a daily basis, ignoring the underlying fundamentals of the company. That force is called volatility.

Volatility is the same mathematical concept as the one that says today’s temperature might vary a few degrees one way or the other from yesterday’s or that today it might take you a few minutes more or less than yesterday to get to work. It is essentially random movement governed by the mathematical laws of chance.

That may not be comforting, but it is an everyday reality in investing just as it is pretty much everywhere else. Volatility is very complex to predict, but it is a relatively simple concept mathematically, and it’s measurable.

In stock market terms, volatility is the measure of how greatly stock prices vary over a period of time. And the VIX, properly known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, measures market expectations of near-term volatility based on option prices among S&P 500 stocks.

The VIX is commonly known as the investor “fear gauge.” High VIX reflects high uncertainty. And because markets are usually more volatile when prices are falling, a high VIX can also suggest high expectations for falling prices.

A low VIX means low expected volatility, which is more associated with expectations of rising prices. Here’s one example of high volatility and falling stock prices: In August 2015, the VIX gapped from 12 to 28 in just a couple trading days. Stocks tumbled 8% in the ensuing six weeks, and after a quick recovery, fell to new lows in early February.

Here’s the good news about volatility: every time in the last decade that the investor fear gauge has made a quantum leap, and stocks have plummeted for weeks and sometimes months, it look less than a year for them to fully recover.

If you’re curious about volatility, you might find our FREE report, Technical Analysis of Stocks, to be a robust addition to your knowledge base.

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Cabot Turnaround Letter Weekly Update

February 26, 2021|From Cabot Turnaround Letter|by Bruce Kaser|Value Investing

Today’s note includes earnings updates, ratings changes, the podcast and the Catalyst Report.
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Cabot Early Opportunities Special Bulletin

February 26, 2021|From Cabot Early Opportunities|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

Arcosa (ACA) released an uninspiring report on Wednesday that was particularly ill-timed given yesterday’s market retreat. The company missed across the board. Revenue was up 2.7% to $459 million, missing by $4.7 million while adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed by $0.08. Guidance for 2021 missed...
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Cabot Small-Cap Confidential Special Bulletin

February 26, 2021|From Cabot Small-Cap Confidential|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

Personalis (PSNL) released preliminary Q4 results on January 11 and the official release after the close yesterday offered no surprises. Personalis (PSNL) Moves To SELL
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Cabot Top Ten Trader Movers and Shakers Weekly Update   

February 26, 2021|From Cabot Top Ten Trader|by Mike Cintolo|Growth Stocks

From the start of this intermediate-term advance back in early November through most of January, there weren’t many bad things you could say—yes, sentiment was bubbly, and there was the occasional horrid day or severe bout of rotation, but the major indexes and portfolios...
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Cabot Prime Week Ending February 26, 2021

From the Cabot Prime Week Ending February 26, 2021 issue of Cabot Prime|by Cabot Wealth Network|Cabot Prime

Stock Recommendation Tracker The Stock Recommendation Tracker is a table that features all of the current recommendations in all of our portfolios. It’s a quick way for you to see what stocks are currently in our portfolios and will highlight new additions or any to...
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Cabot Prime Pro Week Ending February 26, 2021

From the Cabot Prime Pro Week Ending February 26, 2021 issue of Cabot Prime Pro|by Cabot Wealth Network|Cabot Prime Pro

Stock Recommendation Tracker The Stock Recommendation Tracker is a table that features all of the current recommendations in all of our portfolios. It’s a quick way for you to see what stocks are currently in our portfolios and will highlight new additions or any to...
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Cabot Growth Investor 1466

From the Cabot Growth Investor 1466 issue of Cabot Growth Investor|by Mike Cintolo|Growth Stocks

More Cracks Appear At the start of November we saw a couple of blastoff-type indicators flash green (like the Three Day Thrust rule), and that turned out to be the start of a powerful intermediate-term advance. During the next two-plus months, progress was relative there...
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Cabot Small-Cap Confidential Weekly Update

February 25, 2021|From Cabot Small-Cap Confidential|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

The big picture for the market is that the uptrend is intact but under the surface we’re continuing to see pockets of turbulence. While the S&P 500 is just 2% off its high from last week and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index a..
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Cabot Global Stocks Explorer Bi-weekly Update

February 25, 2021|From Cabot Global Stocks Explorer|by Carl Delfeld|Emerging Markets

You may have seen that a relatively new Explorer idea, Fisker (FSR), was up 38% yesterday. It turns out that my analogy of comparing the company to Apple’s relationship to Foxconn was truer than even I could imagine. The news yesterday was that Foxconn will be a..
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Cabot Small-Cap Confidential Special Bulletin

February 24, 2021|From Cabot Small-Cap Confidential|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

Sprout Social (SPT) reported Q4 results yesterday that surpassed expectations. Revenue was up 32.6% to $37.3 million (beating by $1.4 million) while adjusted EPS of -$0.06 beat by $0.05. Guidance for 2021 looks solid with management calling for 2021 revenue of $172.5 million (up modestly...
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Cabot Dividend Investor Weekly Update

From the issue of |by Tom Hutchinson|Dividend Stocks

Earnings have been sensational. Reported earnings for S&P 500 companies have grown an average of 2% in the fourth quarter, compared to an expected -11%.
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Cabot Marijuana Investor 221

From the Cabot Marijuana Investor 221 issue of Cabot Marijuana Investor|by Timothy Lutts|Stock Market

“Legal Weed Stocks Dip Despite New Jersey Governor Signing Recreational Cannabis Bill Into Law” That was the headline on one of my news sources yesterday morning, implying that the action of the stocks in light of that legalization event was somehow illogical. But as know...
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Cabot Early Opportunities Special Bulletin

February 24, 2021|From Cabot Early Opportunities|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

Upwork (UPWK) reported Q4 results yesterday that surpassed expectations on the top and bottom lines. Revenue was up 32% to $106.2 million (beating by $8.8 million) while adjusted EPS of $0.06 beat by $0.06. Guidance for 2021 also surpassed consensus.
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Cabot Income Advisor 221

From the Cabot Income Advisor 221 issue of Cabot Income Advisor|by Tom Hutchinson|Income Investing

Open-Up Stocks Thrive While the Market Struggles It’s been a rare down week in the market. But there’s nothing to be alarmed about. The S&P 500 is only down a little so far. And the uptrend that has existed for almost a year is intact. Even...
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Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor Weekly Update

February 24, 2021|From Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor|by Bruce Kaser|Value Investing

The stock market is clearly accelerating the “reopening” trade. Small cap and cyclical stocks as well as commodity prices are surging, interest rates continue to tick up (the 10-year Treasury yield is now 1.38%, up from 0.92% at year-end), and novel financial vehicles SPACs,...
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Cabot Micro-Cap Insider Update

February 24, 2021|From Cabot Micro-Cap Insider|by Rich Howe|Small Cap Stocks

Judging by some headlines and my Twitter feed, you would think the markets are in meltdown mode. But I just checked and the S&P 500 is only 1.9% down from its all-time high. And the Russell Micro-Cap Index is down 4.0% from its high...
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Cabot Early Opportunities Special Bulletin

February 23, 2021|From Cabot Early Opportunities|by Tyler Laundon|Small Cap Stocks

Last week wasn’t great for growth stocks and so far, this week is just plain awful. The primary culprits are known; risk of inflation and higher interest rates have pushed cyclical stocks up and growth stocks down (generally speaking).
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Cabot Growth Investor Special Bulletin

February 23, 2021|From Cabot Growth Investor|by Mike Cintolo|Growth Stocks

The overall market isn’t cracking yet, but growth stocks are beginning to flash lots of abnormal action. With our trend-following indicators still positive, we wouldn’t sell wholesale, especially if you came into this week with some cash (we had 20% in the Model Portfolio).
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The Unemployment-Stock Market Correlation in One Chart

From the issue of |by Chris Preston|Stock Market

The unemployment-stock market correlation is a picture-perfect inverse. What does that mean with an improving but still-high jobless rate?
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Cabot Profit Booster 163

From the Cabot Profit Booster 163 issue of Cabot Profit Booster|by Jacob Mintz|Options Trading

The stock market added to its gains last week up for a second straight week with the S&P 500 up 1.2% while the Nasdaq jumped 1.7%. Of note, February expiration is upon us this week. And all three of our February positions (Alcoa, and...
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