AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Update: Full Steam Ahead
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reported after the close yesterday. We’re sticking with it. Here’s a bullet list summary of the earnings report and call:
Short-term
- CapEx: $100M in Q4 2024.
- Adjusted cash operating expenses: $30M - $35M in Q4 2024.
- Start beta services in the U.S. for AT&T and Verizon soon via the Block 1 BlueBird satellites currently in orbit.
- File additional regulatory filings with the FCC in the coming weeks and months for both space and ground elements of AST’s network.
- Integrate ASIC into satellite launches by mid-to-late 2025. This will increase network capacity by a factor of 10.
Longer-term:
- Launch up to 60 satellites through 2025 and 2026.
- Block 2 BlueBird satellites cost $19M - $21M each due to recent launch contracts.
- Target continuous space-based cellular broadband service coverage in key markets.
- Government contract pipeline shows potential for significant revenue contributions in future years. Future government revenues primarily from services contracts (not hardware).
- Working to secure a long-term debt package – updates to come soon.
Big Picture Reminders:
- 45-60 satellites are needed to ensure continuous global service coverage, targeting major markets including the U.S. and Europe. This could mean hundreds of millions of potential subscribers.
- HALO program (AST a prime contractor) could generate significant revenue, enhancing role as prime contractor for DoD projects.
- Current satellites performing well; integration with cellular networks underway; autonomous operations enhanced.
- Rakuten partnership confirmed; active engagement for early market entry in Japan post-U.S. and Europe.
- Multiple launch agreements with SpaceX, ISRO India, and Blue Origin are set; confident in meeting satellite launch cadence through 2026.
- New Trump administration likely to continue supportive space policies, enhancing broadband connectivity initiatives.
Tyler’s summary: So far, so good. Lots of work to be done and it will take some time to get to global coverage, but ASTS is making progress. The stock is down today but not because of lack of progress. Watching the 20 – 21 areas as key to providing support (stock at 23.5 Friday afternoon). Maintaining at hold. HOLD HALF
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