March 20, 2025

Today’s Weekly Update will be short and sweet. I am traveling back to the U.S. after a March break vacation with my wife, kids, parents and brother and sister’s families in the Bahamas.

The main market event of the week was yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which concluded with the Fed opting to hold rates steady. During his press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the word “uncertainty” about a thousand times.

That sums up what we’ve all been feeling about this market, the future of the economy and the Trump administration’s governing style.

Maybe it’ll mellow out in the coming quarters. But, more likely, it won’t. The next expected disruptive uncertainty is the shape of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Back to the Fed, the March meeting and rate decision also included the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which provides a look into how Fed officials see the economy progressing in the next year and what their expectations for rate cuts are.

The message was simple – Fed officials expect slower growth and modestly higher inflation. They also expect two more 25-basis point rate cuts this year, which aligns with market expectations going into the event.

Fed officials now see GDP growth of 1.7% this year, down from 2.1% in December (2026 GDP estimates fell from 2.0% to 1.8%).

Powell talked about the potential impact of federal government job cuts on the unemployment rate, which has remained low through March but will probably tick modestly higher in the coming months. The Fed’s unemployment projection for the end of 2025 is now 4.4%, up from 4.3% in December.

Following the rate decisions and Powell’s press conference stocks rallied and the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields fell. The takeaway is that the market expects the Fed will react by cutting rates if the economy begins to falter.

The catch is that tariffs could be inflationary, which would complicate things for the Fed. I have seen the term “transitory inflation from tariffs” a number of times in the last 24 hours.

Oh boy. Last time that was wishful thinking. Hopefully not so this time around.

The bottom line here is that the market exhaled a little sigh of relief given the messaging from the FOMC and Powell.

But the reality remains that the Fed is positioned to react to changes in the economy and employment trends. Trump is positioned to enact policies that will significantly impact both.

In other words, while the broad market (and small caps) has moved higher over the last week we are likely to remain in turbid waters for the foreseeable future.

This is not the same investing environment that we enjoyed in 2024. Best to remain cautious and keep any buys relatively small, for now.

Recent Changes

None

Updates

Alkami Technology (ALKT) has moved back above 25 over the last week and is looking a lot better. BUY

Artivion (AORT) has moved back above 15, the level which shares gapped down to after the Q4 earnings release. No major announcements from the Oppenheimer conference on Tuesday. BUY

AvePoint (AVPT) has been relatively resilient over the last week and has held up above its 200-day line. No company-specific updates and maintaining at hold, for now. HOLD

Axogen (AXGN) is steady – no news. BUY HALF

Delcath (DCTH) has been recovering faster than the MedTech space, as measured by the IHI ETF. Good to see. BUY HALF

Enovix (ENVX) is slightly higher over the last week. BUY

FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) has enjoyed a couple of significant upside moves over the last week. Good to see, but not getting aggressive again yet. HOLD

Peloton (PTON) is back above its 200-day line. BUY

Perpetua Resources (PPTA) was the only stock with meaningful news this week. The company announced the stock will be included in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index and the Van Eck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) as of the market close tomorrow, Friday, March 21. That has helped to drive a wave of buying and the stock has almost closed the gap from the 22% drawdown back in February. Early this morning the company announced that it filed its 10-K Annual Report. Management did not disclose any meaningful updates along with the filing, and the press release was simply a short recap of what was achieved in 2024. Gold stocks are doing well in these uncertain times, and that’s helping PPTA. BUY HALF

Weave (WEAV) is trading at about the same price the stock was at a week ago. No news. HOLD

That’s it for this week. Please email me at tyler@cabotwealth.com with any questions or comments about any of our stocks, or anything else on your mind.

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